英国唯一有点国际影响力的白左报纸，卫报发表了一篇关于西方军事专家对乌克兰开始了10多天的反攻评估。
总结要点，成果有限损失巨大。低估的俄罗斯的能力。要降低对本次反击所能取得的成果。预期三个月后也未必有明显结果。千万不能因为没有明显成果而放弃对乌援助，让这次反击成为乌最后的绝唱。
Ukraine taking significant casualties and making slow progress towards Russian line of defence, say western officials
 6park.com

Patrick Wintour
Ukraine is taking significant casualties and making slow progress towards the Russian main line of defence, western officials have admitted in one of the west’s first assessments of the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched on 4 June.
The officials’ sombre tone was clearly designed to lower expectations of a transformative breakthrough. However they nevertheless insisted the counteroffensive was “going in the right direction” and the losses were not unexpected.
They said the counteroffensive was still in its early days and involved a form of warfare not seen in decades as Ukraine forces are forced to build single lanes of armoured vehicles through mines heading to main Russian defences that in some cases may be still as far as 20km away.
“The vulnerability of the classic single lanes through the minefields make the Ukrainian armoury very vulnerable to attack,” the officials said. The officials denied Ukraine had lost as many as 120 armoured vehicles – a figure touted by Moscow.
One official said: “The Russian manoeuvre and defence approach is proving challenging for the Ukraine and costly to attacking forces hence the advance at the moment is slow”.
The officials suggested there is likely to be “grinding costly warfare likely for many months to come. This is incredibly difficult. They are going against a well-prepared line that the Russians have had months to prepare. Russia has generally put up a good defence from their well-prepared positions and falling back to tactical lines. Whilst they are inflicting casualties on the Russians they are not significant because the Russians are choosing the time to withdraw in a manner similar to the way the Ukrainians defended themselves against Russian vehicles.
“The idea that the Russians were just going to melt away and the Ukrainians were going to drive straight through their defensive line was in people’s wildest dreams.
“In this conflict the advantage has always been with the defender”.
The officials said it may not be clear for as long as three months whether the offensive could be classified as a success.
Most of the vehicles that have been damaged have been hit by mines. As the Ukrainians advance they are also more exposed to drone assaults.
The officials played down suggestions that this assault was likely to give Ukraine a tactical advantage as early as September, and so give it space to reopen talks with Vladimir Putin. “We are a long way away from Ukraine being in a position to reopen negotiations”, the officials said.
The slow progress is likely to place greater pressure on the west to signal to Putin that it is prepared for a long haul, and will not treat the counteroffensive as Ukraine’s one shot at reclaiming its territory. Ukraine has long feared support may decline in the west if the supply of western arms does not produce early tangible results.
Western officials admitted that western-supplied jets may not be available in the short term, even if training of Ukrainian pilots is now underway.
The officials also suggested Putin might have taken a truth serum before meeting military correspondents where he said Russia was suffering severe tank losses and suffering problems with its military industrial base.
Even though there was still a huge amount of confusion about exact Russian deployment, the officials said the vast majority of Russian forces are now committed to positions on the line partly due to the sheer size of the line that has to be defended. That gave Russia little room for further manoeuvre to deploy reinforcements if a point in the line became vulnerable.
By contrast Ukraine was holding back some of its heaviest armoury, including Challenger tanks.