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《一周国际综述8/09/2024》
作者：非驴非马
发表于 2024-08-09
［原文链接］http://top81.ws/show.php?f=1&t=2177247&m=19220151 6park.com1. 英国 6park.com英国的种族骚乱是由三名儿童被冷血杀害而引发的，时机恰到好处。 6park.com加沙战争后不久，以色列永久失去了数十年来全球犹太人基于大屠杀叙事精心粉饰的“道德制高点”。TikTok等社交媒体曝光了种族隔离制度以及以色列政府和军队在实施种族隔离制度期间犯下的暴行，而这些事实在很大程度上被犹太人控制的主流媒体隐瞒了公众的注意力。 6park.com以上这些大大减少了欧盟对以色列政府的支持，尤其是前者正在争夺可用于乌克兰而不是中东战场的军事资源。 6park.com为了动员欧盟对即将到来的中东战争的支持，犹太人希望英国的种族骚乱能点燃欧洲白人对穆斯林人口的恐惧和仇恨。然而，我对这一策略的有效性表示高度怀疑。相反，欧盟政府和白人社区已经老龄化和虚弱，他们可能会临阵退缩，因为过多地纠缠中东问题可能会导致类似的种族骚乱也在他们的国家爆发。让我们看看接下来会发生什么。更糟糕的是，中东的穆斯林社区，无论是逊尼派还是什叶派，都会越来越多地从宗教战争而不是地缘政治冲突的角度来看待以色列和抵抗轴心国之间的战争。
2. 中东 6park.com中东的持久消耗战是不可避免的。斩首战略永远无法作为一种政治工具。它可能在非常有限的军事场景中发挥作用，例如当少数精英军官指挥一群心不在焉、薪水微薄的缅甸士兵时。但它肯定不会在巴勒斯坦起作用，巴勒斯坦决心牺牲整整一代人来为摆脱以色列种族隔离压迫的民族解放而战。这场战争是他们赢得真正独立的唯一也是最好的机会。 6park.com以色列政府和大多数以色列民众也决心升级。因此，以色列国防军和摩萨德暗杀或以其他方式导致抵抗轴心国几位著名人物死亡：伊朗总统、哈马斯政治领袖、真主党高级军事顾问，并轰炸了也门胡塞武装。以色列希望与抵抗轴心国联合军队展开全面战争，这将需要美国的直接军事介入。 6park.com因此，以色列将与抵抗轴心国联合军队开战——真主党领导人纳斯鲁拉也曾说过同样的话。我并不担心伊朗是否会冒险与美国公开开战。伊朗在过去 40 年里没有屈服。当中国和俄罗斯等强国屈服时，他们没有屈服。在过去 40 年里，他们一直生活在美国轰炸机的噩梦中。他们为任何可能的情况做好了准备。 6park.com从战术上讲，我并不指望抵抗轴心国会做出任何过于戏剧性的事情。他们的工作是向以色列施加足够的压力，使美国别无选择，只能上钩。彻底消灭作为犹太复国主义实体的以色列可能是抵抗轴心的目标，但不是抵抗轴心背后的地缘政治参与者的目标。当美国全面介入中东时，中东战争将达到顶峰。在此之前，战争只会一步步稳步升级。 6park.com在具有里程碑意义的《北京宣言》之后，以色列和美国都感到自己被逼入绝境，他们别无选择，只能在军事上面对抵抗轴心的挑战。但美国将极其谨慎地处理局势。我认为，除了第一阶段的精锐特种部队外，不会有地面部队。美国将更愿意只使用空军和海军来拦截对以色列的攻击。 6park.com但战争将逐步升级。鉴于不断增加的沉没成本和来自犹太游说者越来越大的政治压力，美国很可能被迫逐步升级。他们知道这是一个苦涩的诱饵，但他们别无选择，只能吞下它。
3. 乌克兰 6park.com二战期间，苏联红军通过一系列战役解放了乌克兰，而主力则沿着库尔斯克和基辅轴心国前进。现在乌克兰以相反的方式发动了师级突袭。乌克兰军队的三个旅和几个营，总兵力估计有10,000人，入侵了库尔斯克。在最初突破约15-20公里后，他们横向行进。他们似乎计划在库尔斯克与乌克兰相邻的地区进行堑壕战。这意味着他们没有计划夺取库尔斯克核电站，该核电站比乌克兰军队目前占领的地区远60公里。他们似乎只是想尽可能长时间地守住该地区并在俄罗斯境内进行战争。 6park.com这是一场政治战役，因为在乌克兰军队占领的地区内没有具有战略意义的目标。 6park.com这是否改善了乌克兰军队在整个前线的整体局势？一点也没有。俄罗斯有足够多的师和营待命，可以迫使入侵的乌克兰军队撤出库尔斯克。他们甚至不需要将一名士兵从前线调到库尔斯克。相反，俄罗斯正在前线继续取得进展，占领了几个城镇或村庄，例如乌克兰的纽约。 6park.com然而，作为一场政治运动，它是成功的。它让俄罗斯丢了脸。它提升了乌克兰军队的士气，更重要的是提升了西方的士气。作为一名中国人，我很高兴看到入侵库尔斯克的这些影响。这意味着俄乌战争将更有可能持续更长时间。作为一名独立观察员，我钦佩乌克兰士兵的勇敢。他们和绝大多数北约士兵相比是最棒的，他们毫不犹豫地进行了这次自杀式的行动，尽管他们的政治领导人以最充分的方式挥霍了他们的鲜血。
4.亚洲 6park.com孟加拉国总理谢赫·哈西娜目前在印度。尚不清楚她最终是否会在英国寻求庇护。但这并不重要。 6park.com孟加拉国受到几个参与者的影响，即中国、印度和美国。显然是美国发动了街头抗议。但目前尚不清楚谁是政变的幕后黑手。中国和美国都欢迎孟加拉国过渡政府成立后的政治变革。但谢赫·哈西娜让印度政府陷入困境，因为印度观察家们正在哀叹印度在该地区的影响力正在减弱。 6park.com当莫迪在莫斯科拥抱普京时，这激怒了美国。孟加拉国发生的事情是美国给印度上的一课。 6park.com奇怪的是，一些政治领袖，比如昂山素季，同时得到了美国和中国的支持。 6park.com有传言称，为了在南亚站稳脚跟并实现其其他战略利益，美国正竭尽全力从印度东部、孟加拉国和缅甸的部分地区中分离出一个独立的基督教国家。如果这是真的，中国会立刻喜欢这个想法。因为这将为中国创造一个零成本的机会，至少暂时与这三个国家保持良好的关系。由于基督徒总人口约为200-300万，这个基督徒将比库尔德人弱得多，也比库尔德人更加分裂。它不会对中国造成任何伤害，但肯定会恶化这些国家与美国的关系。我不认为副国务卿库尔特·坎贝尔那么愚蠢。 6park.com缅甸军政府总司令敏昂莱指责中国协助缅甸民族民主同盟军占领腊戍，并指控大部分弹药是通过佤邦走私到缅甸民族民主同盟军的。因此，佤邦应中国政府的要求，下令检查向缅甸民族民主同盟军运送弹药、石油产品和医疗物资的情况。我相信这一“禁运”将和哈里斯威胁美国对以色列实施禁运一样有效。 6park.com8月5日，柬埔寨启动了耗资17亿美元的扶南运河，该运河将连接金边和泰国湾。中国正在建设一个多式联运系统，包括水路和铁路，从云南经老挝和柬埔寨到泰国湾。当这些运河和铁路完工后，整个印度支那将成为中国的后院。越南可以享受沿海地区的经济增长，但任何地缘政治野心都将被中国粉碎，因为越南将成为一个被中国陆军和海军包围、无法防御的国家。 6park.com越南政府的任何反华举动都只是为了从西方获得更多经济利益而耍花招。我不认为他们会像菲律宾一样成为美国的军事盟友。美国没有那么蠢，所以美国拒绝给予越南市场经济地位。
<改于20240809191414> 6park.com😎😜🤓
Weekly Geopolitical Review 08/09/24 6park.comThe laptop I am using can not input Chinese characters. So I wrote this weekly review in English. 6park.com1. UK 6park.comThe ethnic riot in UK, triggered by the cold-blood murder of three kids, was precisely timed. 6park.comShortly after the Gaza war, Israel permanently lost its "moral high-ground", which for decades has been carefully window-dressed by global Jewish community on the basis of the Holocaust narrative. Social media like TikTok exposed the apartheid system and atrocities committed by Israeli government and army during the implementation of the apartheid system, which facts were largely concealed from the notice of general public by Jewish controlled mainstream media. 6park.comThe above greatly reduced the support of EU to Israeli government, especially when the former is competing for military resources that could be used for Ukraine instead of the Middle-East theater. 6park.comTo mobilize the EU support for the forthcoming war in Middle East, Jews hope that the ethnic riot in UK would ignite the fear and hatred of European white toward Muslim population. However, I am highly dubious about the efficacy of this strategy. To the contrary, EU governments and white community are so aging and weak that they may got a cold-feet because too much entanglement in the Middle East may cause similar ethnic riots to break out in their countries, too. Let us see what happens next. Even worse, the Muslim communities in Middle East, be it Sunni and Shiite, will increasingly look the war between Israel and the Axis of Resistance from a perspective of religious war rather than geopolitical conflicts. 6park.com2. Middle East 6park.comA lasting attrition war in Middle East is inevitable. Decapitation strategy never works as a political tool. It might work in very limited Military scenario, such as when a few elite military officers command a group of half-hearted and poorly paid soldiers in Myanmar. But it certainly does not work in Palestine, which is determined to sacrifice a whole generation to fight for the national liberation from the Israeli apartheid oppression. This war is their only and best opportunity to win their real independence. 6park.comIsraeli government and majority of Israeli general public are determined to escalate. So IDF and Mossad assassinated or otherwise caused the death of several prominent figures of Axis of Resistance: Iranian president, Hamas political leader, senior Hezbollah military adviser and bombed Yemen Houthis. Israel wants a full-blown war with a united army of the Axis of Resistance, which will necessitate the direct military involvement of US. 6park.comSo Israel will get a war with a united army of the Axis of Resistance--exactly the same words articulated by Hezbollah leader Nasrullah. I am not concerned about whether Iran will take the risks of an open war with US. Iranian didn't give in during past 40 years. When powerful countries like China and Russia caved in, they didn't. They have been living in the constant nightmare of US bombers for the past 40 years. They are prepared for any possible situations. 6park.comTactically, I don't expect anything too dramatic from the Axis of Resistance. Their job is to impose enough pressure on Israel so that the US has no choice but to take the bait. The total annihilation of Israel as the Zionist Entity might be the goal of the Axis of Resistance, but not of the geopolitical players behind the Axis of Resistance. The war in Middle East will culminate when US is fully involved in Middle East. Before that, it will only steadily escalate step by step. 6park.comAfter the landmark Beijing Declaration, both Israel and US felt that they were cornered and they had no choice but confront the challenge imposed by the Axis of Resistance militarily. But US will handle the situation with extreme caution. I don't think there will be boots on ground except for elite special forces at the first stage. US will prefer to only use Airforce and Navy to intercept attack at Israel. 6park.comBut war will escalate step by step. Given the mounting sink costs and increasing political pressure from Jewish lobbyists, US will mostly likely be forced to escalate step by step. They know it is a bitter bait, but they had no choice but swallow it. 6park.com3. Ukraine 6park.comDuring WWII, the Soviet Red Army liberated Ukraine through a series of battles, whereas the main spear head was follow the Axis of Kursk and Keviv. Now Ukraine launched a division level surprise attack in a reverse manner. Three brigades and several battalions of Ukraine army, with a total estimated forces of 10,000 soldiers, invaded Kursk. After the initial breakthrough around 15-20 kms, they marched horizontally. They seemed to plan trench in and began a trench warfare in an area located in Kursk and adjacent to Ukraine. It means they have no plan to take Kursk nuclear plant, which is further 60km beyond the area currently occupied by Ukraine forces. It seems that they just want to hold the area and conduct the war within the territory of Russian as long as possible. 6park.comIt is a political campaign, because there is no target of strategic importance within the area occupied by Ukraine forces. 6park.comDoes it improve the whole situation of Ukraine forces throughout the front line? Not at all. Russian have more than enough divisions and battalions stand-by to compel the invading Ukraine forces out of Kursk. They don't have to move even one soldier from the frontline to Kursk. To the contrary, Russian are continuing making progress in frontline by taking several towns or villages such as New York, Ukraine. 6park.comHowever, as a political campaign, it is successful. It makes Russian lose face. It boost the morale of the Ukraine forces and more importantly the West. As a Chinese, I am happy to see these effects of the invasion to Kursk. It means the Russo-Ukraine war will be more likely to last longer. As an independent observer, I admire the bravery of Ukraine soldiers. They are the best compared with the vast majority of NATO soldiers, conducting this suicidal operation without hesitation, though their political leaders squandered their blood in the most foolish way. 6park.com4.Asia 6park.comBangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina is currently in India. Is unclear whether she will finally seek asylum in UK or not. But it doesn't matter. 6park.comBangladesh is under the influence of several players, namely China, India and US. It is obviously US who mobilized the street protests. But it is unclear who is behind the coup. Both China and US welcome the political change after the establishment of the transitional Bangladesh government. But Sheikh Hasina poses a dilemma for Indian government, as Indian observers are lamenting that India's influence in the region wane. 6park.comWhen Modi hugged Putin in Moscow, it irritated the nerves of US. What happened in Bangladesh is a lesson taught by US to India. 6park.comOne of the weird things is that some political leaders, such as Aung San Suu Kyi, are supported by both US and China. 6park.comThere are rumors that with an aim to gain a strong foothold in South Asia and fulfil its other strategic interests, US is trying its best to carve out a separate Christian nation from parts of Eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. If it is true, China will instantly love this idea. Because it will create a zero-cost opportunity for China to maintain good relationships with these three countries, at least for the time being. With a total Christian population around 2-3 million, this Christian will be much weaker than Kurds and more divided than Kurds. It cannot do anything harm China but it certainly worsen the relationships between these countries and US. I don't think Deputy Secretary Kurt M. Campbell is that stupid. 6park.comMyanmar Junta Chief Commander Min Aung Hlaing is blaming China for assisting MNDAA in taking Lashio, alleging a lion portion of ammunition smuggled through Wa State to MNDAA. Therefore, at the request of China government, Wa State issue an order to inspect transportation of ammunition, petroleum products and medical supply to MNDAA. I believe this "embargo" will be as effective as Harris' threat of US embargo to Israel. 6park.comOn August 5, Cambodia launched the $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal, which will connect Phnom Penh and the Gulf of Thailand. China is building a multi-mode transportation system, including water and railway, from Yunnan to Gulf of Thailand through Laos and Cambodia. When these canals and railways are finished, the whole Indo-China will become China's backyards. Vietnam can enjoy economic growth due to its coastal location, but any geopolitical ambition will smashed by China because Vietnam will become a nation surrounded by Chinese Army and Navy and undefendable. 6park.comAny anti-China move of Vietnam government is just to play tricks to obtain more economic interest from the West. I don't think they will become a US military ally like the Philippines.US is not that stupid. so US refuse to grant Vietnam Market Economy Status. 6park.com【作者注：】我使用的笔记本电脑无法输入中文，所以我用英文写了这篇周评。
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